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The chemical industry: the process of structural recovery of the investment strategy of the opportun

Investment Highlights: 
 
2009 1 ~ 5 months, the chemical industry value chain increased month by month, year-on-year by the decline narrowed to a small increase. 2009 1 ~ 5 months, oil and chemical industry output value 2300 billion yuan, up 11.2 percent drop, drop 1 ~ April narrowed 1.8 percentage points. The chemical industry output value of 1.39 trillion yuan, up only 0.7 percent decline. In May, the chemical industry output rose 2.6 percent, the Central than the 4.5 percent growth, for 4 months to maintain growth.
The first half of the bulk chemical industry to expand product demand, prices of some products, but the structural problem of excess capacity still exists. The first half of the oil and chemical industries to run three characteristics: First, part of the bulk product demand continued to expand; Second, prices of some products; Third, the steady growth of the investment industry; d is the industry's structural problem of excess capacity still exists.
Automobile prices in market competition due to a gradual downward trend, in November 2008 than the beginning of the domestic automobile price index fell by 0.61 percentage point decline in car relatively early 3.01 percentage points over the beginning of goods declined by 1.3 percentage points.
2009 1 May, the chemical industry to achieve the income 1.3517 trillion yuan, a profit of 59.6 billion yuan. Revenue and profit growth over the same period are at a historic low level, but with the chemical reaction to stabilize prices, increase production and sales chain, industry-wide revenue and profits and the level of gross margin improvement has been from the first quarter, the current indicators are in the improvement.
Chemical fiber industry to benefit from stimulating the domestic textile and garment industry, China's textile and garment industry's development in recent years, the annual decline in export dependence on the volatility of international markets than many had just entered the international market, the industry has a strong ability to adapt and adjust the capacity . After shrinking export market, domestic market sales efforts, there is no clear weakening in the economy is at the bottom of the stage, more defensive sectors.
1 May, China's production of nitrogen fertilizer 19.983 million tons, up 10.9 percent; the production of phosphate fertilizer 5,592,000 tons, an increase of 6.4%; 1.1 million tons of potash fertilizer production, an increase of 15.3%. In the fertilizer business, we have good resources of phosphate fertilizer company with potash company valuation advantage.
Soda ash industry to benefit from the real estate driven into the production capacity expansion. Soda ash production capacity is currently about 23.3 million tons / year, there are about six million tons of new capacity and gradually released in the next two years. Real estate price index rebounded to some extent, downstream industries that account for half of soda ash consumption in the warmer of the real estate industry, the soda industry will also be opportunities in the second half gradually increase. The continued recovery in the second half of the real estate is expected to boost soda ash prices have continued to rebound, a conservative price of soda ash is expected to increase by about 10%.
Oil prices will enhance the profitability of the chlor-alkali industry. Calcium carbide enterprises to adopt the pricing method to follow the way of ethylene, so oil prices could again try for the price of PVC. PVC are mainly used for building materials, the relatively strong domestic real estate, but few new projects. The recovery of the second half of the lower reaches of the real estate market will boost demand for the restoration of PVC.
Overall, the chemical industry as a whole in the middle reaches of the economic aspects of the valuation is still no advantage to give the industry a neutral rating. We believe that high oil prices and economic recovery is expected, the chemical industry there is a clear section of the structural investment opportunities. Sub-sectors in the choice of continued concern with the end of sustainable consumption is closely related to the related fields. We recommend that listed companies with blond science and technology, China Heng Sheng Lu, and Shuangliang sha long da shares.